European wholesale gas prices could exceed 100 euros ($117) per megawatt‑hour by December, a level analysts say is necessary to outbid Asian demand and build sufficient winter inventories.
Experts warn that a recent surge in near‑term European futures to a five‑month high—above €65 per MWh—does not solve the problem. If supply disruptions from the Middle East persist into next year, current price levels will be insufficient to divert scarce LNG shipments from Asia to Europe.
The logistical crisis is driven by the US‑Iran conflict, which has pushed transit through the Strait of Hormuz to a minimum. Increased competition from Asian buyers has left the traditional summer refill campaign for European storage behind schedule. Goldman Sachs calculates that by the end of the current month Northwest European storage will be only 51% full, about 3.4% below the bank’s baseline forecast.
The squeeze on global energy flows comes at a critical moment for Europe’s winter preparations. Prospects for relief in the Middle East appear limited: the Trump administration is pursuing escalation and has announced the launch of an “economic D‑Day” against Iran.