The US Energy Information Administration has revised up its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2026, the agency said in its latest report. The EIA raised its 2026 projection by about 1.2% to $97.44 per barrel and said that prices are likely to remain near the $100 mark through the end of this year. The upward revision reflects a three‑month rally in commodity markets driven by shrinking global inventories, higher tanker freight rates, and a protracted disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to EIA analysts, given ongoing infrastructure and logistical constraints, there is little scope for a sustained fall in hydrocarbon prices in the near term. The agency does not expect a material retreat in prices until next year: its baseline forecast puts average Brent at about $85.78 per barrel in 2027.
Despite the agency’s cautious outlook, futures have already shown a notable correction in early November. On November 10, Brent futures slipped below the psychological level of $90 per barrel for the first time since August 2026. Traders link the pullback to the Republican Party’s setbacks in the US midterms. Investors expect that a loss of congressional control will reduce incentives for the Trump administration to prolong the Middle East confrontation and clear the way for a faster reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global crude flows.