Aluminum futures in the UK climbed to $3,550 per tonne, nearing the four-year peak of $3,650 reached on April 16th, as prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East continued. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated, with both sides trading threats and extending a standoff that has disrupted commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. Before the conflict, Gulf producers accounted for about 9% of global aluminum supply and nearly 25% of output outside China.
Additional pressure came from direct attacks on major refineries in the region, which have delayed any meaningful recovery in production. EGA’s flagship plant is now expected to take about a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain’s ALBA have been suspended. The turmoil has also driven up natural gas prices, further increasing refining costs.
On the demand side, robust manufacturing data from China has underpinned a stronger consumption outlook. This has been reinforced by heavy issuance of special-purpose bonds in recent municipal debt auctions by China’s largest cities, with the proceeds typically channeled into aluminum-intensive infrastructure projects.