The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note inched up to 4.99% on Monday, its highest level since 2007, as another jump in oil prices was expected to add to inflationary pressures and worsen the overall price outlook, reinforcing the case for further Federal Reserve tightening. Markets are currently pricing in nearly an 89% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, which would mark its first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers are also set to release updated economic projections, with investors closely watching for any signals on the likely path of future interest rates.
At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to near-term Fed policy expectations, rose to 4.66%, its highest level since mid‑2024. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds, which tend to be more responsive to long-term inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, climbed above 5.36%, nearing levels last seen in 2004 and briefly touched last week.