Copper futures climbed back above $5.85 per pound on Monday, as a sharp pullback in the US dollar and opportunistic dip-buying by Chinese fabricators helped counter the initial geopolitical shock. The rally accelerated as the US dollar index retreated from recent highs, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated metals for overseas buyers.
In China, spot premiums rose for a fifth straight session after prices fell below the 100,000-yuan mark, triggering a fresh round of downstream buying from the construction and renewable energy sectors. At the same time, traders highlighted mounting pressure in the midstream segment, with annual copper smelting and refining charges for 2026 collapsing to $0 per tonne. That move underscored a severe global shortage of copper concentrate, raising concerns about future refined output.
Although record-high exchange inventories in Shanghai initially limited further price gains, expectations of a long-term structural deficit—underpinned by demand from AI data centers and defense spending—continue to provide a firm floor for the red metal.