Crude oil hovered around $91 per barrel on Friday and was on track for a weekly loss of roughly 12%. The decline was largely attributed to optimism that the Middle East conflict might be resolved more quickly, following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, even as significant uncertainties remain. With Democrats securing control of both houses of Congress, President Donald Trump’s ability to sustain strong support for military action against Iran could be constrained.
Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals submitted by mediators on its nuclear program, but has reiterated that it will require the lifting of the US naval blockade on its ports, an easing of sanctions and the release of frozen assets before it fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, at least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, underscoring ongoing risks to maritime shipping.
Nevertheless, conditions have improved markedly. Crude exports from the Gulf have rebounded to near pre-war levels, although transportation and insurance costs remain elevated.