Elon Musk has made another bold bet on artificial intelligence. The billionaire believes that neural networks could double US economic growth next year — from the current 2% to 4%.
Musk’s optimism is backed by a massive investment boom. Moody’s estimates that US high-tech giants will spend nearly $1 trillion on chips and new data centers in 2027. By comparison, capital spending by their Chinese rivals is expected to be only $165 billion. Apollo Global Management expects AI‑related spending to reach 3% of US GDP soon, whereas three years ago, it was barely above 0.5%.
Wall Street’s main question is the timing of returns on these investments. History shows that large‑scale technology adoption takes time: the dot-com boom of the 1990s delivered real productivity gains many years later. In addition, Musk’s ambitions encounter tight Federal Reserve policy. In September, the US central bank raised the federal funds rate to 4%. As a result, expensive credit risks cut off small and midsize businesses from costly AI tools.
So far, macroeconomic forecasts diverge sharply from the billionaire’s promises. Most analysts warn about a steady slowdown in the US economy rather than an explosive surge. Reuters reporters also tactfully remind readers that Elon Musk is a highly interested party: the market caps of his companies Tesla and xAI depend directly on how long investors continue to believe in AI as a savior.