The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now projects a notably weaker pace of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2026, with the estimate easing to 1.2%. According to the latest update on 1 July 2026, the real-time tracker has moved down from its prior reading of 2.5% for the same period, highlighting a marked loss of momentum in the quarter’s growth outlook.
The GDPNow model is closely watched by markets as a high‑frequency gauge of U.S. gross domestic product performance. The shift from 2.5% to 1.2% for Q2 2026 suggests a cooling in underlying economic activity compared with earlier expectations, although it does not represent an official government GDP figure. Investors and policymakers are likely to monitor subsequent updates closely for further confirmation of the slowdown as new data feeds into the model over the remainder of the quarter.