Gold hovered just below $4,400 an ounce on Monday, holding steady as investors weighed subdued US economic data against persistent tensions in the Middle East. Recent figures showed contained US inflation alongside weakening consumer sentiment and retail sales. As a result, markets now assign roughly a one-in-three probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, down from nearly 50% prior to the data release. Investors are looking ahead to the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium for further policy signals. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East remain high after Israel carried out new strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, while President Donald Trump prepares additional economic sanctions aimed at pressuring Iran to capitulate. Nonetheless, Middle Eastern producers continue to covertly ship millions of barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.