The euro held above $1.165 in the final full week of August, its strongest level since mid-May, as investors positioned for a more hawkish ECB amid heightened geopolitical tensions and ahead of further clarity on Iran-related sanctions. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates in September, building on its June tightening aimed at containing inflationary pressures stemming from the US–Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices.
Oil prices remain above $90 per barrel, with persistent risks of additional supply constraints in refined fuels, low gas inventories, and a conflict that could extend beyond the US midterm elections in November. A September increase would lift the deposit rate to 2.5%, while market expectations for further tightening continue to grow. Futures pricing implies a 25% probability of the rate reaching 3% by March 2027 and a 60% chance by September.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to hold a press conference after warning of “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran, with investors watching closely for any measures that could also target China. Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed the proposed sanctions as an act of desperation.