Wheat futures climbed toward $7.40 per bushel in late August, reaching their highest level since June 2023, as the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war heightened concerns over further disruptions to supplies from one of the world’s key grain-producing regions. Russia is reportedly preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine, including strikes on infrastructure, after concluding that peace talks have stalled.
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for more than one-quarter of global wheat exports, amplifying fears of renewed food-price pressures at a time when energy and transport costs remain elevated due to conflict in the Middle East. Ukraine’s agricultural exports are already forecast to drop by more than half this season compared with earlier projections, while Russian wheat exports are expected to fall by over 50% in August from a year earlier.
Adding to the upward pressure on prices, US wheat export inspections declined to 425,668 metric tons in the week ended August 20, down from 514,363 tons the previous week and sharply below the 1.05 million tons recorded in the same week a year ago.