European natural gas prices climbed back toward €100 per megawatt-hour on Friday, the highest level since late 2022 and set for a monthly increase of more than 30%. The rally reflects mounting concerns over a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East and Europe’s urgent need to secure gas supplies ahead of winter. Geopolitical risks intensified after reports on Thursday that a senior military commander had briefed President Trump on possible military options against Iran.
Europe’s gas market is already tight due to reduced LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, with storage levels at 74.89% as of October 29—below historical norms. Weather forecasts are also turning more bearish, with colder-than-usual conditions expected across Europe. If these cold snaps coincide with similar conditions in Asia, heating demand could climb sharply, complicating storage management and replenishment efforts. At the same time, Europe and Asia are likely to keep competing for available LNG cargoes throughout the winter, heightening exposure to price pressures and market volatility.