The United States, Iran, and regional intermediaries are engaged in closed-door consultations regarding the terms of a 45-day ceasefire, which is intended to be the first step toward a complete cessation of the military conflict. This was reported by Axios, citing four American, Israeli, and Middle Eastern officials familiar with the negotiations.
Representatives from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are actively participating in this round of diplomatic efforts. At the same time, there is direct communication between the US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
The draft document under discussion proposes establishing a 45-day ceasefire regime (phase one). During this time, negotiators will attempt to define the terms for a permanent peace agreement. If necessary, the ceasefire period may be extended.
According to Axios, the likelihood of signing even an interim agreement in the next 48 hours is considered low. However, intermediaries view the current dialogue as the last viable opportunity to avoid a major regional escalation. If negotiations fail, the conflict could lead to mutual strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure, as well as energy and water facilities in the Gulf countries.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump extended the ultimatum requiring Iran to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz until 3:00 AM Moscow time on Tuesday. In an interview with Axios, the US leader confirmed that Washington is engaged in "intensive negotiations" with Tehran but accompanied this with a stern warning.
"There’s a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," Trump stated.
In preparation for the agreement, intermediaries are developing a scenario for limited confidence-building measures. Tehran is expected to make concessions regarding the unblocking of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and freezing its stocks of highly enriched uranium. In turn, Washington is considering providing Iran with firm guarantees that the ceasefire will not be abruptly terminated by the American side immediately after its conclusion.