Global crude oil prices could fall sharply in the coming weeks as preliminary peace arrangements between the US and Iran advance. According to a forecast by Karen Ward, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, published by Bloomberg, the Brent benchmark has the potential to decline to $70 a barrel by the end of June. With oil trading around $83 at present, the short‑term drop could be roughly $13, a move that may materially reshape the balance of power in the global energy market.
Ward links the expected steep price decline to the resumption of production and exports of Middle Eastern crude. That process will be directly enabled by the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the region’s key logistical artery. Additional physical volumes may quickly ease the accumulated supply deficit and set in motion a gradual return of prices toward long‑term pre‑crisis levels. The news of an agreement, the details of which became known overnight on Monday, June 15, has already prompted a sharp reaction on exchanges, driving Brent down to its lowest levels since March 10 of this year.
One of the fundamental terms of the compromise between Washington and Tehran was Iran’s full renunciation of any further blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and of charging fees for the safe passage of foreign tankers. That decision reduces the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into commodity prices over the past four months of the war. Experts say stabilized shipping in the Persian Gulf could significantly ease global inflationary pressures and bring major central banks back to discussions about plans to cut interest rates.