Thinktank Yardeni Research says it shares longer‑term worries voiced by experts about the scale of US sovereign debt but considers market panic premature, and the “hour of reckoning” is not hanging over yet. Experts from Yardeni Research commented on warnings from JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon about an impending “crack in the bond market” and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio’s talk of a “death spiral” and a “point of no return.” Yardeni stressed that investors who have adhered to such persistent pessimism in recent years were wrong and missed a powerful rally in stocks.
The analysts note that the real alarm will be signaled only by the behavior of so‑called “bond vigilantes.” For now, 10‑year Treasury yields remain in the 4–5% corridor — the “old‑norm” range that reflects a healthy economy and sits well below nominal GDP growth. At the same time, the firm acknowledges growing fiscal imbalances: total government debt crossed $40 trillion in August, net interest costs on that debt topped $1 trillion (roughly equal to the entire US defense budget), and the deficit settled at about 6% of GDP — a level typically seen only in deep recessions.
Nevertheless, the market is shielded from an uncontrolled crisis in the near term. Yardeni argues that key counterweights are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s willingness to curb yield spikes with direct interventions and buyback programs, and new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s commitment to strict inflation control and price stability.