Global benchmark Brent crude resumed a sharp advance, edging toward the psychologically important $100‑per‑barrel level amid mounting fears of a prolonged military standoff in the Middle East. Futures on the North Sea grade rose 2.32%, settling at $99.32, and briefly rallied to $99.40, topping the $99 mark for the first time in about six weeks. Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $85 per barrel from $80, warning that sustained attacks on tankers could send prices toward $120.
Military activity is forcing market participants to price in a long‑term risk premium. Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, told Reuters that an escalation of tensions and an exchange of missile strikes would prompt a structural repricing of supply risks not only through the end of 2026 but well into 2027. Markets fear prolonged shipping disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a large share of global oil exports.
The situation is worsened by direct threats to the facilities of key Persian Gulf producers. Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia had to temporarily shut some energy assets in its southern region after air strikes from Yemen. Houthi statements about intentions to block Saudi oil exports pose a direct risk of a physical shortfall in global crude supplies.