Australia’s 10-year government bond yield remained near 4.8%, holding its recent decline and staying close to a three-month low, as markets broadly expect the Reserve Bank to keep policy rates unchanged next week. A run of softer economic data, from GDP figures to housing prices, has strengthened signs that the central bank’s three rate hikes earlier this year are starting to work their way through the economy. Market pricing now effectively rules out any move at the June 16 meeting, while the implied probability of an August rate hike has dropped sharply to about 35%, from more than 80% a month ago. The May CPI report, due on June 24, will be crucial following an unexpectedly weak April inflation reading, as policymakers seek clearer confirmation that underlying price pressures remain elevated. At the same time, rising optimism over a potential US–Iran peace agreement has helped ease worries about persistent inflation, after US President Donald Trump indicated that a deal could be reached as soon as this weekend, following his decision to delay planned strikes on Iran.