Fitch has affirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, underscoring the strength of the country’s large economy, high per-capita income, and the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency. The agency noted that, despite tariffs, spending cuts, tighter border controls, and ongoing policy uncertainty, the U.S. economy has demonstrated notable resilience and flexibility.
Economic growth is expected to moderate, slowing from a projected 2.8% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026–2027, reflecting weaker labor demand and slower job creation. Inflation is forecast to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, averaging 3.4% in 2026, in part due to the impact of tariffs on core goods.
The fiscal outlook remains under pressure. The federal budget deficit is projected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026–2027—the highest level among sovereigns rated in the AA category—driven largely by rising defense spending, higher interest costs, and growing expenditures on Medicare and Social Security.
Moody’s currently rates the United States at Aa1 with a stable outlook, while DBRS maintains a AAA rating on the U.S., also with a stable outlook.