Thermal coal futures have risen above $150 per ton, their highest level since September 2023, after Indonesia tightened export controls on key commodities—a policy shift expected to delay coal shipments from the country. The move coincides with stronger seasonal demand, as summer heat drives up electricity consumption for air conditioning.
Additional support for coal prices has come from ongoing disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compelled energy importers in Asia and Europe to seek alternatives to natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf. Japan and South Korea, in particular, have significantly increased their coal consumption since the outbreak of the war.
Compounding the supply-side strain, Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility has declared force majeure, removing nearly 10.2 Mtpa of LNG destined for Asia. The partial shutdown is expected to continue through late summer, further tightening regional energy markets and underpinning coal demand.