Yesterday, the formation of the reversal model on the junior time frame occurred, which allowed the pair to reach the weekly short-term target of 1.2575-1.2561. The next target is the monthly short-term fault of July.
Medium-term plan.
After going beyond the limits of the monthly short-term fault of July 1.2628-1.2585, the probability of return to its limits was 90%. Yesterday's upward movement made it possible to implement the priority model. The closure of today's US session within the limits of the monthly short-term fault will allow talking about the formation of the reversal model of the senior order. Any reduction can be used to find advantageous purchase prices. It is important to note that the downward medium-term impulse is a strong trend formation, therefore the purchase targets must be determined by the nearest control zones.
An alternative model will develop if the pair can not gain a foothold above 1.2575. This will allow us to consider the resumption of a downward movement, which with a high probability will lead to the formation of a local accumulation zone.
Intraday plan.
Today, the pair is trading within a weekly short-term fault of 1.2576-1.2562, which indicates the implementation of the reversal model on the junior time frame. The determining support is the NCP 1/2 1.2501-1.2493. While the pair is trading above this zone, the probability of continuing the upward momentum is 70%. The next goal of growth is the NCP 1/2 1.2659-1.2651. For growth to the specified zone, it will be necessary to close one of the American sessions above the level of 1.2576. The emergence of such a large demand occurred for the first time in two months, so the implementation of the reversal model may take some time.
Daytime short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the future market, which change several times a year.
Weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important future market marks, which change several times a year.
Monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.