EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Finally, the markets have rebounded, and we believe there is an objective view of the market. Last Friday, outside the agricultural sector, 209,000 new jobs were created in the US against expectations of 180-185,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3% with a rise in the labor force participation rate from 62.8% to 62.9%. The euro and the British pound were down 96 points. However, the pound has sharply declined in the second session and in two days has touched the May highs. From a technical perspective, overcoming the support in May could lower the price towards the high of December 2016 (1.2770). We assume such an option on a fundamental basis. If you agree with the growth revision from last month due to expectations of an early rate hike by the Bank of England, then the return towards 1.2750/70, where it began, could happen quite fast. This is because the BoE's last meeting paved the way for such expectations. To put it simply, on the weakened ideas, it is already impossible to draw the market from speculators. We believe that they have fulfilled their tasks and it's time to fix the profit, which occurred on Friday, as it was the largest decline since July, as the euro also faced its largest drop since December. It can be assumed that the euro's growth is due to the flow of capital from the UK in relation to attempts to restrict euro operations in London due to Brexit. However, for the monetary aggregate we see a reduction of only M0 (82355 billion pounds in July against 82,402 billion in June, which is only 47 billion less), which is, money circulation outside banks. In the eurozone, there is only an increased growth of the M3 aggregate (from 11598 billion euros in June to 11649 billion in July), which is, the growth of bond and bill circulation. In fact, there is no withdrawal of capital from the UK.
In the eurozone, the business activity index for the retail sector in July showed a decline from 53.2 to 51.0. Industrial orders in Germany in June rose by 1.0%. Today, data on Germany's industrial production in June will be released and the forecast is at 0.2%. The Sentix investor confidence index for the eurozone in August is expected to fall from 28.3 to 27.8. In the US, consumer credit is expected to reach 15.6 billion in June against 18.4 billion from the previous month.
Today, there are certainly very few reasons to stimulate selling. The most significant news will be made at the end of the week. However, we are waiting for the euro at a result of 1.1650, and the pound sterling towards a range of 1.2935/70.
USD/JPY
As expected, the Japanese yen could not help but grow on the strong US labor data. The technical range of 110.00-111.00 certainly appears to be favorable for accumulating long positions. The US stock index S&P 500 gained 0.19%, while the Dow Jones added 0.30% and also reached a new record high. On these emotions today, the Nikkei 225 climbed 0.60% and the S&P/ASX200 with 0.97%. Chinese indices are finding it difficult to recover and are currently declining.
Next week on the 14th, Japan's GDP will be estimated for the second quarter. Reuters has released a 0.6% growth forecast following a 0.5% expansion in the first quarter. Tomorrow the balance of payments for June will be released and the forecast is at 1.51 trillion yen against 1.40 trillion yen in May. On Thursday, the volume of domestic new orders for machinery products, excluding orders for ship and equipment for power generators (Core Machinery Orders), in June is expected to increase by 3.7%. Against the backdrop of a calm financial calendar for the United States (on Thursday and Friday there will be inflation indices with upbeat forecasts), we are waiting for the stock market and yen to grow. The first target is 111.70, then at 112.75.