Last week, the dollar made another attempt to gain a foothold above the level of 60 rubles, but it again proved unsuccessful. And this is despite the feverish fluctuations in oil prices, disagreement around new sanctions, and a slowdown in inflation.
After inflation rose to 4.4%, which many dubbed explosive, it slowed to 3.9%, which in itself never cheers up investors and speculators. Moreover, inflation closely hit the historical low, which was achieved in April-May 2012 and was 3.6%. Now it is more and more clear that the domestic businesses does not know how to work in low inflation conditions, so its confidence slowdown is usually attributed to negative factors.
Oil is considered as the most important factor determining the ruble exchange rate, so the swing in prices should have an extremely negative impact. Moreover, the agreement on the reduction of oil production is not inconsequentially executed, which can be seen in recent production reports. The agreement's participants continue to increase production and export volumes. Nevertheless, the cost of oil could not fall below $50 per barrel of Brent, which is higher than the level set in the estimates. So, fluctuations in oil prices do not have such a strong impact on investor sentiment relative to the ruble.
Another negative factor which be can considered are the new US sanctions, which directly hit the export of energy carriers to Europe. However, it is much more interesting how Europe responded, where the direct text says that the new sanctions package is an instrument of the trade war. It also said the sanctions contradicts the entire international trade agreement. In Germany, they to called the new sanctions 'illegal'. Thus, the US desire to force Europe to buy more expensive shale gas only strengthens the contradictions between the Old World and the New World. And although this situation only creates uncertainty, the development of the conflict so far does not give a special reason for a confident play against the ruble.
Given the rather significant stability of the ruble at its current levels, there is a strong belief that by the time the Fed lift its refinancing rate, along with the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, most of the speculators have already left the ruble. And although the influence of speculative capital is too early to be written off, its influence has clearly weakened. This was mentioned by the Minister of Economic Development and Trade, Mr. Oreshkin, who stated that the ruble had reached the equilibrium level. Thus, serious factors are needed for the dollar to grow or decline seriously.
This week, it is worthy to pay attention to several factors. Of course, most often you will hear about oil and new American sanctions. But, as shown last week, these factors will have only a temporary impact. A much more interesting development is how investors will react to preliminary data on GDP growth rates, which should accelerate from 0.5% to 1.3%. If the expectations are justified, then the probability of the dollar falling to 59 rubles is high.