The third week continues the formation of a downward medium-term impulse. The immediate goal of the fall is the monthly short-term fault of August 1.2797-1.2746. The test of this zone will close most of the short position.
Medium-term plan.
In conditions of a strong downward movement, any growth in the pair should be used to find points for the sale of the instrument. The control zones of the junior time frame are most suitable for issuing limit orders. It is important to understand that the achievement of the monthly short-term fault of 1.2797-1.2746 obliges to close all sales or most of them, as the probability of large demand will increase significantly. After a monthly test, you can search for opportunities of purchases after the formation of reversal patterns on the junior time frame.
To form an alternative growth model, it will require the emergence of large demand at current levels, which will allow the pair to grow by 100 points or more. This will allow us to consider the formation of a deep correctional model.
Intraday plan.
At the beginning of this week, the continuation of the fall is the most likely scenario. For this reason, any growth should be used to obtain profitable prices for the sale of the instrument. Updating the monthly minimum is the first goal of the downward model. The main goal remains NCP 1/2 1.2731-1.2715, the probability of which is 70%. The closest resistance to date is NCP 1/4 1.2923-1.2915, which is located within the daily course of the instrument.
The daytime short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.