EUR / USD, GBP / USD
Yesterday's session was the calmest in the market this week. There are no serious political events that occurred and investors were cautious at the fall of a number of economic indicators. In the UK, the balance of retail sales from the CBI in August fell from 22 to -10, while 15 was expected. On the other hand, business investments in the second quarter showed zero growth against the expected value of 0.4%. The sentiment of Business circles in Belgium fell from -1.5 to -2.1. In the US, home sales in the secondary real estate market in July fell from 5.51 million to 5.44 million against the expected value of 5.55 million. The US stock index S&P 500 lost 0.21%, but quotations of major currencies remained virtually unchanged over the day.
The speech of Janet Yellen begins at 16:00 London time today. The background information points to the announcement further intentions of the Central Bank in strengthening monetary policy which is the start of easing the balance of the Fed and then once again lower the rate. At 19:00 London time, Mario Draghi will give his word. As of now, investors assume its calm tonality, lack of hints or indications of tightening of the policy and even a little indication of the excessively rapid growth of the euro. We presume that both J. Yellen and M.Draghi will touch upon the theme of the economic crises challenges in new realities such as incomplete readiness of the banking sector, overheated markets, political disorders.
In the afternoon at 12.30 London time, there will be a report for durable goods in the US for July. The forecast for basic order, excluding transport, is 0.4% after the previous growth of 0.1%. According to general orders, the forecast is -6.0% after growth in June by 6.4%.
Same as before, the decline of euro to 1.1640 is anticipated while the pound also decreases to 1.2630.
USD / JPY
On Thursday, the sudden move of yen surpassed the unstable resistance in the past four days near the level of 108.70 and added 52 points against the decline in stock markets. The volume of trades exceeded the averages, and it can be assumed that the big players helped the yen slightly but it is not without the guidance of the Central Bank. If this is so, the help was appropriate and delicate in teh given condition. Today, the inflationary data came out positively as expected. The base CPI in the estimate for the month of July increased from 0.4% y / y to 0.5% y / y, while the total CPI remained at 0.4% y / y. Today, markets are waiting for positive US data on orders for durable goods.
The Japanese stock market gained 0.57% while the Chinese Shanghai Composite is growing by 1.16%. The only obstacle to the further growth of the yen is a sharp decline in yields on Japanese government bonds. For two days, the yield on 5-year securities fell from -0.094% to -0.129%. Multi-directional yields include US government bonds, but the overall mood is positive relative to the "hawkish" tonality expectation of Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole.
The yen is expected to rise towards 111.00.