EUR/USD, GBP/USD
The long-awaited speeches of the heads of the US and eurozone central banks in Jackson Hole took place, but investors were disappointed by the neutral tone of both officials - Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. Markets wanted to hear statements about the timing and volume, but instead, the heads of the Fed and the ECB confirmed their commitment to earlier taken courses amid a slow economic recovery. But this means that the Fed will raise the rate not earlier than December and begin to wind down the balance sheet from September (which was confirmed by Jerome Powell and Loretta Mester on the same day), and the ECB will not accelerate its own QE plan. As a result of Friday, the euro grew by 125 points, while the pound sterling by 80 points.
Negotiations on Brexit reached a dead end and stopped. France offered to even extend the UK's transition period to three years, but Britain refuses to pay compensation in the EU above what "itself has calculated." The next stage of negotiations is expected to begin in October. The balance of macroeconomic data was neutral on Friday - the Ifo index of sentiment in German business sector fell from 116.0 to 115.9 in August, but it was better than the forecast of 115.5. The volume of orders for durable goods in the U.S. in July fell by 6.8%, against expectations -6.0%, but the base volume of orders increased by 0.5% against expectations of 0.4%.
The increase of the euro and the pound, however, occurred at high volumes, which is likely to retain the rates of these currencies until the middle of the week. The first important and expected good data for the US will come out on Wednesday - then the 2nd GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter is expected to be 2.7% compared to 2.6% in the first estimate and 186, 000 in jobs are expected to grow in the private sector. Today it is a holiday in the UK. The US will have a trade balance for July, a forecast of -64.5 billion dollars against -64.0 billion dollars in June. According to wholesale inventories for July, an increase of 0.3% is projected.
The euro is likely to rise to 1.1990, while the British pound is likely to attempt another increase to 1.2950.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar showed restraint in reaction to the low-key statements of the heads of the Fed and the ECB and this morning even opened with a declining gap against the "bullish" gap in the euro and pound. For these reasons on Friday commodities became feverish, but as a result futures were disposed for the reduction, that is, restoring the previous trend. Coking coal decreased by 3.55%. Oil is currently close to the closing price of Thursday. Stock index of Australia, the S&P/ ASX200 lost 0.68% today - the biggest fall in the APR. Chinese China A50 grows by 1.13%, Indian Nifty50 added 0.56%. The reason for the fall of the Australian stock market were negative reports of companies. The greatest drop were in mining and transport companies.
National macroeconomic indicators are expected to be negative this week. On Wednesday, construction permits are issued for July, the forecast is -5.1%. On Thursday, private sector lending and capital investments are expected to slow down by 0.1%. According to China, the indices of business activity can also, according to forecasts, show a weakening.
If the weakening of the US dollar is expected today and tomorrow continues, it is possible for the "Aussie" to increase to 0.7960.