Last week, the GBPUSD pair tested the monthly control zone of August at 1.2797-1.2746, which led to an increase in demand and the formation of a corrective movement towards the last drop in the exchange rate. By the end of this week, there was no formation of an upward reversal, while the probability of a return within the monthly short-term remains high.
Medium-term plan.
Today, the pair is in the process of forming a correctional model for the August fall. In order to resume the downfall, it is necessary to maintain the price at the current levels as the trading closes this week. In this case, the next target decline will be the NCI 1/2 1.2731-1.2715. In order for the growth to continue, it will be necessary to update the weekly maximum and consolidate above it. This will enable the growth of the weekly short-term peak 1.3142-1.3109.
An alternative model will develop if the pair continues to trade within the extremes of the current week. This will form an accumulation zone beyond the direction which will be indicated in the future.
Intraday plan.
The pair tested the NCI 1/2 1.2957-1.2941 this week, which led to a delay in growth. To continue the downward medium-term model, the price should be kept below the control zone. The next target of the fall is the NCI 1/2 1.2731-1.2715. The range is necessary to ensure that sales from the control zone are profitable with an adequate stop above the high of the current week. A break in the downward structure will occur if the pair can gain a position above the 1.2957 level as the trading closes this week.
Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. This zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.