Today, the margin requirements on futures have changed, which indicates the need to change the control zones that have not yet been worked out. The nearest target of the downward movement is within the limits of the weekly short-term fault of 1.2328-1.2311.
Medium-term plan.
At the end of last week, the pair approached the monthly short-term fault of August 1.2533-1.2271, which indicates an increase in the likelihood of large demand. It is important to note that within a monthly short-term fault, there is a weekly short-term fault of 1.2338-1.2311. The coincidence of two significant support zones speaks about the need to consider purchases in the formation of the reversal pattern, even on the younger time frame. The downward movement is a strong long-term impulse, so growth with a high degree of probability will have a corrective character, which will require partial fixation of purchases in the nearest control zones.
An alternative model will develop if the pair can break through and consolidate below the level of 1.2271. This will allow us to consider the continuation of a downward movement. The probability of this model is 30%.
Intraday plan.
The strong downward movement of the end of last week speaks of its impulsive nature. The determining resistance is the NCP 1/2 1.2432-1.2424. While the pair is trading below this zone, the downward momentum will continue. The main goal of the fall is the NCP 1.2328-1.2311. The achievement of this zone will allow to fix the most part of sales and to consider purchases at the formation of the reversal pattern. To disrupt the downward structure, it will be necessary to consolidate above the level of 1.2432 at one of the American sessions.
The daytime short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.