Economic statistics from the US published on Friday were contradictory and therefore did not have a significant impact on the US dollar.
According to the data, the number of new jobs in August increased by 165,000, against the expected increase of 180,000 according to the consensus forecast of Bloomberg agency. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. At the same time, the July figures of the number of new jobs were revised downward from 205,000 to 202,000.
The data turned out to be disappointing, but not so critical. In general, since the beginning of the year, the average number of new jobs has been held at a high level of 180,000, indicating that if the current rate of employment continues, the unemployment rate may fall below 4.0% by the end of this year. In addition to these data, on Friday there were still figures on the average hourly wage, which fell in August in growth to 0.1% from 0.3% a month earlier.
But, in addition to the negative news on Friday, the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) was also published, which rose in August to 58.8 points from the July reading of 56.3 points, as well as the employment index in the manufacturing sector from ISM. The indicator showed a sharp increase to 59.9 points against in 55.2 points in July.
Several economic figures were also released by the University of Michigan, which showed a decrease. But the market did not react to the published economic data by a significant drop in the dollar. Of course, at first it was under pressure, but then, on the contrary, it gained. In our opinion, this reaction can be explained by the internal readiness of the market to the negative figures, which have been priced in with positive ones in recent months, as well as the unwillingness to make important decisions before the ECB meetings this week, and the Fed, which will be held on September 19-20.
Today is a holiday in the US, so the activity on world markets will be noticeably lower. It is likely that consolidation will take place in the foreign exchange market.
Forecast of the day:
The pair EURUSD today is likely to continue trading in the lateral, narrow range of 1.1840-1.1920 amid expectations on the one hand of the participants of the market of the results of the ECB meeting that will be held on September 7, and on the wave of a weekend in the US that will limit a significant number of market players.
The GBPUSD is also likely to move in the outset of the range of 1.2870-1.3000, remaining under the general influence of investors' reluctance to be active on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England and the ECB, as well as the start of trading activity in the United States.