EUR / USD, GBP / USD
Dividing the US employment figures into a manifold of data can be considered moderately optimistic. The number of non-farm employment changes showed a reduction of 33,000 versus the expectation of more than 80,000. However, the share of the economically active population has increased, resulting in the decline of the unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.2%. The average hourly wage in September rose by 0.5% against expectations of 0.3%. William Dudley and Robert Kaplan are the speakers in the evening, they identified the September non-farm employment data as a temporary phenomenon which will not affect the Fed's decision on December rate hike, compared with hints on the regulator's intention to raise the rate. The British pound continued to decline by -53 points, while the euro push off the ten-day consolidation on August 8-18, and grew by 23 points. In spite the growth that took place during the US session, the European data was positive for France's trade balance for August, with an improved figures from -5.8 billion euros to -4.5 billion euros and the volume of industrial orders in Germany for the same month that added 3.6% against expectations of 0.7%.
Today is a public holiday in the US. According to Germany, August industrial production is expected to grow by 0.9% versus 0.0% in July, while the European Sentix Investor Confidence for October is projected to grow from 28.2 to 28.6. With these data, it is likely that the correction will continue from the technical level. The target for the euro can be the 1.1820 level. The British pound can also take advantage of the situation guided by the forecasts for tomorrow, particularly on the industrial production with 0.2% and trade balance in August by -11.2 billion pounds vs -11.6 billion in July, it will try to grow to 1.3160. The positive news is the refusal of Scotland to hold an independence referendum before clarifying the details of Brexit.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar also corrected upwards, followed by the euro and the pound. But it is more difficult to manage under the continued pressure of commodity markets. On Friday, the oil lost 2.4%, iron ore by -1.23%, and the copper by -0.5%. Yields of government bonds are growing, the 5-year securities are up from 2,337% to 2,352%, against the backdrop of the Bank of Australia's disappointment on the exchange rate of the national currency. This can be interpreted as the uncertainty of investors in economic prospects. On Thursday, market participants were worried about the 0.6% drop in retail sales against the 1.0% increase in exports. On Friday, the activity index in the construction sector declined from 55.3 to 54.7 in September. Today, Chinese Services PMI in the assessment of Caixin for September declined from 52.7 to 50.6.
In this situation, it is reasonable to expect sideways trading on the "Australian" within the range 0.7740-0.7800. In the future, it is necessary to track the movement of commodity prices.