EUR / USD, GBP / USD
The main political event on Tuesday was the suspension of the Catalonia independence declaration by the Catalan President Carles Puigdemont. The head of Catalonia seeks talks with Madrid, as he reserves the "moral right" to declare this independence at any time. The euro grew by 68 points due to the support of macroeconomic data on Germany's trade balance for August which growth rose from 19.3 billion euros to 21.6 billion. Also, the growth of Italian industrial production for the same month came in at 1.2%, while the industrial production in France decreased by 0.3%. The movement of Catalonia is reversed just like in the history of Greece, which wanted to bargain itself for better conditions to creditors, but further fell into even greater dependence on them. The markets are no longer interested in such "Cobra rolls", and the investor's attention is focused on the trends of the Central Banks again. Primarily, the trends observed in the Bank of England provided hints several times about the rate hike in December. On Tuesday, the pound increased by 61 points. But today, the minutes will be published from the last Fed meeting, where a similar trend can be registered which is the December rate hike. UK Economic data came out mixed, as the industrial production in August rose by 0.2% coincided with the expectation levels, while production in the construction sector gained 0.6% against the forecast of 0.0%. However, the trade balance deteriorated from -12.8 billion pounds, with a decrease from -11.6 billion to -14.2 billion pounds. The September forecast for the UK GDP from NIESR was 0.4% against 0.5% in August.
There are no macroeconomic data today. Aside in Spain that will issue its September CPI, as the forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% YoY. FOMC Minutes of Meeting at 7:00 PM London time remains to be the only important news expected today.
We are expecting for the euro at 1.1745, then on 1.1680. Similarly, we anticipate for a decrease in the pound, with targets at 1.3095 and 1.3010.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar slightly corrected against its European counterparts in the absence of political acute events and the reluctance of commodities to continue to grow. Iron ore lost 1.19% ($ 60.54 per tonne), coal - 1.3% ($ 95.35 per tonne). Oil continue growing by 1.6%, but the markets are already expecting for a new wave of a strong fall due to the recent plans of OPEC to extend the OPEC + agreement. Yesterday, the cartel asked the United States to reduce oil production but the US of course, did not agree. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, shale companies have actively hedged oil supplies from the level of $50, which, in fact, they did exactly three years ago, only from $100. Thus, when future deliveries will be contracted and insured, we are expecting for a new impact on oil prices. Our forecast is 23.30 by Light Sweet Crude Oil.
The China's trade balance for September is published on Friday, with a negative outlook at $38.4 billion versus $42.0 billion in the previous month. We are expecting a decline of the "Australian" to 0.7680, then to the range of 0.7610 / 40.