EUR/USD, GBP/USD
On Wednesday, there was no pressure on the pound. The number of issued mortgages in the UK in October amounted to an expected 65,000 against 66,000 in September, the net volume of new loans fell from 5.2 billion pounds to 4.8 billion, but was better than the expected 4.3 billion pounds. After the preliminary release of the speech by Janet Yellen in the Senate, who spoke about the good pace of US economic growth and the FED's unchanging views on the medium-term monetary policy, investors continued to work out positive expectations on the UK's trade agreement with the EU. More specifically, the question of the amount of compensation and other negotiating issues can be fixed at the EU summit in mid-December. However, this will be preceded by a meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker on 4 December. Until then, investors can continue buying but they may not continue to do so, as the US Congress is almost ready to accept, with amendments, Trump's tax reform. On Tuesday, the bill was passed by the Senate budget committee. On what, in fact, the US stock markets have been actively growing for two days. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones added 0.44%. The mood was spoiled only by North Korea's announcement of a creation of a missile capable of reaching any point in the United States. The British pound traded nearly ambiguously, despite the peak daily volumes for the last 5 months. Perhaps, the increased volumes are connected with the closing of short positions on stop-loss. The growth of the pound is now unlimited and the goals are not defined. However, if there are no significant obstacles, we are waiting for the price at 1.3645. The First Objective and Obstacle at 1.3535.
The situation on the euro is more stable. Good data on the US did not allow the dollar to develop due to the rush on the British pound. Commodities and gold were falling in the general direction of the strengthening of the dollar, but the growth of yields of government bonds on the market was interpreted as an increase in risk appetite. US GDP in the 2nd assessment for the 3rd quarter was the expected 3.3% (the largest increase in the last 3 years), compared to 3.0% in the first assessment, pending sales in the secondary real estate market in October increased by 3.5% against the forecast of 1.1%. To some extent, it covered the nervousness and the euro market, the single currency experienced strong fluctuations.
Today, it is expected to be no less challenging. There are data on inflation and employment in the euro area and on income/expenditure of consumers in the United States. The eurozone consumer price index for November is expected to grow from 1.4% y/y to 1.6% y/y, the base CPI is expected to increase from 0.9% to 1.0% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, 8.9%. Retail sales in Germany in October are expected to increase by 0.3%. In the US, consumer income for October is projected to increase by 0.3%, spending by 0.2% -0.3%.
In the evening, Randal Quarles and Robert Kaplan will give speeches, the topics of which, will not be connected to monetary policy. Under normal conditions, we would assume the euro's trading range within the limits of 1.1820/75, but another rush may lead to a quotation towards 1.1930. The main scenario continues to be a decline towards 1.1715 within a few days.
AUD/USD
This morning, good indicators of business activity in China were released. However, they had a positive impact only on the Australian dollar. The Chinese stock indexes continue to decline sharply. Chinese Manufacturing PMI for November increased from 51.6 to 51.8, while expecting a decline to 51.5, Non-Manufacturing PMI increased from 54.3 to 54.8. The stock index of China A50 is down 0.74%. Australian S&P/ASX 200 at 0.48%. The only growing index of the ATP is the Japanese Nikkei 225 - an increase of 0.13%.
In Australia, the number of permits issued for new construction in October increased by 0.9%, while the expectations was for a decline by 0.9% -1.8%. Investments in construction in the third quarter increased by 1.2%, investments in fixed assets by 0.7%, private new capital investments added 1.0%, as expected.
The market also has mixed dynamics - oil loses 1.4%, iron ore rises by 0.2%, gold and non-ferrous industrial metals were cheaper. In the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar loses more than 30 points. The Australian investors can only wait for the resolution of the situation on the US dollar. Until the end of the week, in all likelihood, this will not happen. We are waiting for the "Aussie" in the range of 0.7550/90.