EUR / USD, GBP / USD.
Last Friday, the markets continued to completely work out risky correlations. This trend is strong in the stock market, especially with the daily growth of Dow Jones at 0.85%. Although monthly growth has three more days before its completion, it has already become the largest in the last 30 years with 7.55% growth. The 10-year US government bond yields exceeded the level of June 2014 (2.660%). In the foreign exchange market, investors decided not to hurry controlling new highs and consolidation stopped on weekend amid mixed data from the US economy. The US GDP data for the fourth quarter showed an increase of 2.6% against an average expectation of 3.0%. This is a very good figure for the first rating, but as a rule, the final evaluations for the last quarter are revised upwardly. The upcoming December forecasts for consumer spending, construction costs, and industrial orders give grounds for such an upward revision. The trade balance for December came in at -71.6 billion dollars against the forecast of -68.6 billion dollars and -70.0 billion in November. The volume of durable good orders for the same month increased by 2.9% against expectations of 0.9%. Wholesale commercial inventories added 0.2%.
Investors optimistically perceived that the growth of British GDP for the quarter will be at 0.5% with a forecast of 0.4%. The Telegraph has published news on the continuous behind-the-scenes negotiations between the UK and the EU on the extension of the Brexit transition from 2 to 3 years. This was hinted by Minister for Brexit affairs David Davis, saying that the immediate goal is to reach the agreement on the "implementation period". In his speech on Friday, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney reported losses of 40 billion pounds sterling in the form of lost production due to complex Brexit. But in the long term, the head of the regulator sees positive changes and accelerated growth due to an even greater integration of the UK into the world economy.
The macroeconomic data for today will attract investors by the income/expenditure of individuals in the United States. Based on the December estimate, revenues are expected to increase by 0.3%, and expenses by 0.4% -0.5%.
We are looking forward to further growth of the single European currency to the 1.2640 level and the British pound to 1.4345 and further to 1.4500.
AUD / USD.
Australia had a national holiday on Friday, but this did not prevent the Australian dollar from setting a new high since May 2015. This confirms the dependence of the "Australian" currency on the overall state of the US dollar (index) in the current situation since the increase occurred from the opening of the Asian session to the peak activity on the American.
Commodity markets supported this optimism. Oil rose in price from 0.06% to 1.08% depending on the brand, natural gas is up by 1.91%, iron ore in price did not change ($ 76.21).
This morning, there is a slight pressure in the commodity markets. Tomorrow, Australia will release the December business confidence index from NAB, with a forecast of 12 against 6 in November. According to New Zealand, the trade balance for December will be published, which shows a total of -125 million dollars against 1.19 billion in November. On an annualized basis, the trade balance is projected at -3.42 million dollars, down from -3.44 million.
We are expecting for the growth of the "Australian" dollar to 0.8240.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.