For the EUR / USD pair, the price may reach a cloud consisting of resistance line of 1.2539 and a target of 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2425 (red dashed line). A further downward movement is also possible but, if we break through the level of 1.2510, then the next upper target is 1.2595.
For the GBP / USD pair, the price broke through the rising channel 1.3952 and the next upper target of 1.4588 with the retractable Fibonacci level of 50% (blue dotted line).
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
In January, the market moves upward and closed slightly below the upper target at Fibonacci levels of 161.8% - 1.2415. In February, the price can continue to move upward with the goal of 1 2517 (resistance line). A more complex analysis will show more accurately determine where the price goes next.
Fig. 1 (monthly chart).
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2).
ADX Indicator system (Figure 2) for the EUR / USD pair.
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
Overall: the MACD indicator on the monthly chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (the trend of the week).
21 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue), moving up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which moved upwards - the signal is up.
At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow), moving up, is above the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved upward - the signal gain of the upper work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the monthly chart gives an upward signal.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
- average EMA lines - 24% up;
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down.
A summary of the indicator analysis: the price on the monthly chart should have a downward trend.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators: CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is the upper signal.
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal.
Result: calculation of a monthly candle for February month on technical analysis showed that the price movement in the first week of February will have an upward trend, but finally, a one-week schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.
The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave a downward trend (100 points down).
Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave a downward trend (100 points down).
The bottom line: In technical analysis, the calculation for the last week of December showed that the price will have a downward trend at the last week of the week, but finally, a one-week schedule will answer this question definitively.
Fig. 2 (monthly chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on the complex analysis is most likely the bottom work.
Calculating the total result of the candle for the EUR / USD currency pair on a monthly chart: the price is most likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow (the first week of the month - the upper one) of the monthly black candle and the absence of the second lower shadow (last week is black).
The first top target is 1.2517 (resistance line).
GBP / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
In January, the market broke the rising channel at 1.3952, and the next upper target is 1.4588 the retractable Fibonacci level of 50% (blue dotted line). A more accurately will show the complex analysis where the price will further go next.
Fig. 1 (monthly chart).
Indicator analysis on the monthly schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2) for the GBP / USD pair.
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend (100 points up).
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).
The grand total: the MACD indicator gives a neutral trend on the monthly chart.
Middle lines of the EMA.
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (the trend of the week).
21 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue), moving up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which moved upwards - the signal is up.
At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow), moving up, is below the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved upwards - weakening the signal of the top work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the monthly chart gives an upward signal.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
- average EMA lines - 24% up;
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% up;
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% up.
The grand total: the price on the monthly chart should have an upward trend, according to the indicator analysis.
Calculation of the first shadow of the month (the first week) on a monthly chart.
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators: CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is the upper signal.
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal.
The bottom line: In technical analysis, the calculation of the monthly candle for the month of February showed that the price movement in the first week of February will be the top, but finally the weekly schedule will answer this question definitively.
Calculation of the second shadow of the month (last week) on the monthly schedule.
The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave an upward trend (100 points up).
Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave an upward trend (100 points up).
The bottom line: In technical analysis, the calculation of the last week of February showed that the last week of the month the price will have an upward trend, which should be confirmed on the weekly schedule.
Fig. 2 (monthly chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
Conclusion on complex analysis is possible upward.
The total result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a monthly chart: the price is most likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) with a monthly white candle and no second upper shadow (last week is white).
The upper target is 1.4588 and the rolling level is 61.8% (blue dotted line).