On Friday, the following strong calendar news came out:
- 9:30 AM London time. GBP, the business activity index in the construction sector for January came in at 52.0, versus the previous value of 52.2;
- 1:30 PM London time. USD, change in the number of employed people in the non-agricultural sector for January is estimated at 184K, compared with the previous value of 148K;
- 1:30 PM London time. USD, the unemployment rate in January is expected at 4.1%, against the previous value of 4.1%.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Thursday, the price went up and break the main target at 161.8% (red dotted line). On Friday, the upward movement may continue. The complex analysis will determine accurately the price direction.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator shows a downward trend.
Overall: the MACD indicator on the daily chart shows a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved up, positioned above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the top work.
21, the middle EMA line moves upwards, positioned below the 13th EMA midline, and strengthening the signals of the top work.
The bottom line of the EMA middle line system on the daily chart shows an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators are as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
the MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis shows the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion.
On Friday, the market would likely move down before the strong economic release at 1:30 PM London time.
GBP / USD Pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Thursday, the price continued to move up. While on Friday, the market may continue to move up. The complex analysis will determine accurately the price direction.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved upward, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the oscillator type of indicators.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart indicates an upward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
At the last day's closed candle.
The calculation of the RSI indicator (5) on the properties moves down.
Calculation of the RSI indicator (8) by properties moves down.
The bottom line of the RSI indicator system indicates a downward trend.
The calculation of the CCI indicator on the properties moves down.
The bottom line of the CCI indicator system indicates a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis shows the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Friday, the GBP / USD pair may have a downward movement, with the first target of 1.4150. This will only take place until the strong news release at 9:30 AM London time.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.