On Monday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 09.30 London time. GBP, the index of business activity in the services sector (Jan.), waiting for 54.1, the previous value was 54.2;
- 15.00 London time. USD, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (Jan.), are waiting for 56.5, the previous value was 56.0;
- 16.00 London time. EUR, the speech of the head of the ECB Draghi.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Friday, the price of the news went down, but could not close below the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (red dotted line). On Monday, the upward movement may continue. The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
Indicator MACD (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
The fast line (signal) is the white line.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The overall result: The MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle line of the EMA - the color is white (first shadow).
5 middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle line of the EMA - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle line of the EMA - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run, the 8 middle line of the EMA (blue) moved up and above the 13 middle line of the EMA (yellow) is the signal of the top work.
The 21 middle line of the EMA is moving upwards and below the 13 middle line of the EMA, amplifies the signals of the top work.
The bottom line: The EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
The average EMA lines - 24% up;
The MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
The MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - upwards;
- Candle analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
On Monday, most likely, the market will move up, with the first target of 1.2523 (upper fractal).
Pair GBP / USD
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Friday, the price, retesting the line, the resistance went down. The market on Monday may continue to move down. The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved upward, but the fast line had a value of more than 90%. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
The stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives a downward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of indicators RSI (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
On the last closed candle.
The calculation of the indicator RSI (5) on the properties gives down.
The calculation of the indicator RSI (8) by properties gives down.
The bottom line: The RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The calculation of the indicator CCI on the properties gives down.
The bottom line: The CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candle analysis - down;
- Trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Monday, on the pair GBP / USD, may have a downward movement with the first target of 1.3979 (lower fractal).