On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 8.00 London time. EUR, change in the number of unemployed in Germany (Feb), The expected value is -15K compared to the previous value of -25K;
- 9.00 London time. EUR, consumer price index (CPI) (y / y) (Feb, The expected value is 1.2% compared to previous value of1.3%;
- 12.30 London time. USD, GDP (q / q) (4 sq.), The expected value is 2.5% compared to the previous value of 2.6%;
- 14.00 London time. USD, the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Jan.), The expected value is 0.3% compared to the previous value of 0.5%;
- 14.30 London time. USD, crude oil reserves, The expected value is 2.675M compared to the previous value of -1.616M.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Tuesday, the market moved down according to the weekly trend. After touching the resistance level 1.2353, the price went down. On Wednesday, it is possible to continue the lower movement with a target of 1.2173 (a retracement level of 38.2%). A complex analysis will more determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The grand total: the MASD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved down, is below the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the bottom work.
21 the middle EMA line, moving down, is below the 13th EMA midline, weakening the signals of the bottom work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% down;
The MACD indicator (linear part) is 38% down,
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion.
On Wednesday, the market will most likely move down towards the first target of 1.2173 with a retracement level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).
GBP / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Tuesday, the price moved down in the side channel. on Wednesday, the market can continue to move down with the first target of 1.3857 in the bottom fractal. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives an upward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of indicators RSI (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
At the last day's closed candle.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (5) gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (8) gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the CCI indicator gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - down;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Wednesday, it is possible the GBP / USD pair to continue its downward movement with the first target of 1.3857 in the bottom fractal.