On Thursday, the following strong calendar news will come out:
- 8.30 London time. GBP, PMI (Feb.), The expect value is1.2% compared to the previous value of 1.3%;
- 14.00 London time. USD, the speech of the head of the Fed, Mr. Powell;
- 14.00 London time. USD, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (Feb.), The expected value is 59.0 compared to the previous value of 59.1;
- 14.30 London time. USD, crude oil reserves, The expected value is 2.675M compared to the previous value of -1.616M.
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Wednesday, the price moved down, according to the weekly trend. On Thursday, the market may continue to move down, with the first goal of 1.3684 in the lower limit of the Bollinger lines. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The grand total: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved down, is below the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the bottom work.
21, the middle EMA line, moving down, is above the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the lower work signals.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% down;
The indicator of the MACD (linear part) is 38% down,
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - down;
- candlestick analysis - up;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Thursday, it is possible for the GBP / USD pair to continue its downward movement with the first target of 1.3684 in the lower limit of Bollinger's lines.