GBP / USD
The British pound closed the day lower by 13 points against the background of the battle against the euro yesterday. However, its own economic data for the UK were not very good. The balance of retail sales from CBI for April was -2 against the forecast -3. As expected, investors are anxiously waiting for the GDP data for the first quarter later this day. The forecast is weak at 0.3% (1.4% per annum) against 0.4% in the fourth quarter. In the morning, the first negative report was released showing the consumer confidence index from Gfk in April fell from -7 to -9 with the expectation that the indicator will not change. The residential property price index in April is expected to grow by 0.2% but the previous decline was -0.2%, which in the end gives a zero change.
In the evening, the US GDP will be released for the 1st quarter with a forecast of 2.0%. Against this background, the British GDP can be perceived by investors more sensitively. Also, there are further strong data that will come out in the US. Growth in the labor cost for the first quarter is expected at 0.7% versus 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The final assessment of consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April is expected to increase from 97.8 to 98.0.
We are expecting the pound in the range of 1.3800 / 20 with the target at 1.3745 / 55.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction