AUD/USD is developing wave 5 of the medium term downtrend - colored orange red in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, 0.9833-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-1.0055-1.0105 (waves 1-2), 1.0105-0.9960-1.0021 (waves 3-4).
Supports:
- 0.9933-31 = confluence area of .764 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9905-0.9898 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
- 0.9876 = OP
- 0.9813 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9944.
Resistances:
- 1.0063 = .382 ret
- 1.0099 = .50 ret
- 1.0136 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The price is now above the zero level, therefore now is the time to start looking for topping signals. Overbought area, which is some 10 pips away, will be a better place for a short entry.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.