4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
Upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
Lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.
СCI: -171.8686
On August 10, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its collapse. No sign of a pullback or correction. Macroeconomic reports on Friday were very few, and all of them were insignificant. However, as is often the case, Donald Trump came to the rescue, who decided to heat up the already not the most optimistic relations with Turkey and introduced new duties on steel and aluminum from this country. Now the duties on aluminum are 20%, and on steel – 50%. Thus, it is a strong blow to the Turkish economy, and some experts even predict a serious financial crisis for Turkey. On the one hand, this is unlikely to happen. If the introduction of duties could provoke a full-scale crisis, Trump would have imposed duties on the whole world. On the other hand, it cannot be denied that the blow to Erdogan's economy has been dealt. And the consequences for the eurozone may be sad again. The fact is that the increase in duties will reduce the demand for aluminum and steel of Turkish companies, and consequently their income and profits. Accordingly, there may be problems with servicing loans, most of which are issued by European banks, which as a result, theoretically, may have problems with liquidity. Although this is still the most negative of the possible scenarios, and the crisis of 2008 was clearly taken into account by the ECB, and it is unlikely he will allow its repetition.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1,1353
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1,1414
R2 – 1,1475
R3 – 1,1536
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair continues the strongest downward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to remain in sell positions with the target of 1.1353. The reversal indicator Heiken Ashi upwards will serve as a signal to manually close short positions.
Buy-positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than consolidating the price above the moving average line. However, today there is very little chance of this - the price is too far from the moving-house.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.
The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.
CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.
Murray's levels are multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken-Ashi indicator, coloring bars blue or purple.