AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9668-0.9803 (wave 3).
Resistances:
- 0.9866 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 0.9886 = .50 ret
- 0.9905 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9903-0.9987, 0.9987-0.9878-0.9968.
Supports:
- 0.9813 = .618 retracement is hit (!)
- 0.9792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9769 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9709 = .764 ret
- 0.9683 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now above the zero and the overbought area is 20-30 pips away (0.9880-90) which roughly corresponds to .50 retracement - 0.9886.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.