Bitcoin medium-term analysis and expectations

So far Bitcoin price action has not been much different from our expectations. At the end of April we warned bears that a bounce was coming in Bitcoin prices and we should expect a move towards $57,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline.

Price made a high just above $59,000 and just above the 61.8% retracement level. Since then price has turned lower towards $54,000 and the rejection could very well lead to a new lower low than that of April. Price has formed a higher low and if it continues to trade weak, we should see more lower lows and lower highs in price action.

Red lines - Fibonacci extensions

Bitcoin has the potential to revisit the April lows around $47,000 and there are increased chances of breaking them also. In fact our favorite scenario is bearish as long as price is below $59,500. Our target is at $42,000 and with a small possibility of extending towards $30,000. This scenario will be confirmed if price breaks below the April low around $47,000. I consider the bounce from $47,000 only a short-term counter trend bounce as I believe Bitcoin has already started a major correction phase.