The AUD/USD is basically trading in the flat limited by 1.0076-0.9831. However the wave count shows that this pair is standing in potential daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave C break below 0.9803 is needed (top of wave A). Within the daily wave there alre also waves of smaller degree, e.g. the price is developing subwave C - colored magenta in the chart, which also has wave C of still smaller degree - colored red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0076, 1.0076-0.9831-1.0021, 1.0021-0.9888-1.0000, 1.0000-0.9874-0.9944.
Supports:
- 0.9870-67-66 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 0.9818 = OP
- 0.9797 = COP
- 0.9785 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = OP
- 0.9740 = XOP
If the price keeps going up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0000-0.9874, and expansions off 0.9831-1.0021-0.9874.
Resistances:
- 0.9937 = .50 retracement
- 0.9952 = .618 ret
- 0.9991 = COP
- 1.0064 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The Oscillator is now at the zero level coming from below, which may be a good retracement to take. Still it's better to wait for a deeper retracement into the overbought area (15-20 pips to go - 0.9915-20) or to a Fib resistance - 0.9937-0.9952 - to open short positions.
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.