The inflation is a left-and-second impression. Published numbers left more questions than answers, due to the heterogeneity of releases. The preponderance was in favor of the American currency. It is not possible to turn the tide. American statistics also presented an unpleasant surprise, spoiling a positive attitude. In other words, each "barrel of honey" turned out. However, first things first.
It was published during the European session. It turned out that the indicator was slowed down to 1.6%, although experts expected to decline only to 1.8%. Thus, the index shows a negative trend for the second month in a row. However, it has been predicted by analysts. This release has been mitigated. Although, in my opinion, the ECB members accordingly.
Thus, the representative of the European rate of inflation. Indeed, then she clarified that we are talking about 1 and 2 quarters of 2019, whereas today we have learned. If you're a CPI, it's about 1 percent.
However, the American traders didn't ignore it. In the case of the 14th figure, it will be a pair. The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector jumped immediately by the trainer of mine. This is a multi-month record since last thousandths of a month. It also showed a record increase. Thus, it grew by 0.4% (although it was the rate of 0.3%), and it grew by 3.
By the way, the indicator showed the maximum increase since April 2009, in annual terms. The weak growth of wages for a long time was a "headache" for Fed members, especially against the background of a strengthening labor market. Even Janet Yellen, when he was the head of the Federal Reserve, said that the stagnation of wages with a steady increase in the number of employees was an alarming sign that could negatively affect the dynamics of inflation. Today's release will remove this issue from the agenda, leveling short-term concerns about this.
However, American statistics has not been without unpleasant moments. Thus, unexpectedly for all, the unemployment rate increased at once by two-tenths of a percent. The consensus forecast said that the figure will remain at the previous level, which is by 3.7%. Therefore, the real numbers have disappointed the traders quite strongly after which the demand for the dollar has slightly decreased.
But the main disappointment of Friday for dollar bulls was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a joint conference today with his predecessors, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. During his speech, Powell announced that, if necessary, the American regulator would change the policy to reduce the balance. He also noted that the Federal Reserve will "show patience" and "appropriate flexibility" this year. He again reminded traders that the regulator had reduced the number of indicative rate increases in 2019 to two, while according to him, the Fed members "continue to listen to market concerns." such excessive caution brought the dollar bulls back to earth, and, despite strong nonfarm, the dollar index returned to 95 points and even updated the local minimum, reaching the 95.662 mark.
In general, the last day of the first trading week was quite revealing. Strong American statistics clearly succumbs to the position of the Fed, whose members continue to demonstrate a "dovish" attitude. After all, if the regulator is in any case set to "show flexibility" and reduces the rate of increase, the "value" of key indicators will largely fall. In other words, if the rest of the Fed members take a similar position, then the dollar will continue to swoop down, despite the possible success of the American economy.