For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 102 points, resulting into a large amplitude of oscillation, which is not so common. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after a brief recovery, the quotation again shot at the range of 1.1300, where, according to the regularity, resistance was found. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see that due to the recent V-shaped oscillation, the quotes have appeared relatively new boundaries in the form of the current level of 1.1300, the same ceiling at 1.1210 bottom in the form of clusters in earlier periods.
The focus of the entire news background, no doubt, was the ECB meeting followed by a press conference. The day before the event, in narrow circles of bank analysts, the topic of a possible resumption of the quantitative easing program, as well as a reduction in the interest rate, was actively discussed. The day has come "X", Mario Draghi comes out and declares that the key rate will remain at the current level until at least mid-2020, but the ECB's action plan remains the same. Naturally, disappointed traders with short positions began to draw a chamber, limited to the level of 1.1300. Mario Draghi, in turn, added that the board raised the issue of reducing the rate and resuming the quantitative easing program, but this is only at the review stage, and the ECB is currently following the initial plan of action.
Today, the key event of the day is the report of the United States Department of Labor, which will publish data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in May, where it was predicted that 185 thousand new jobs were created in comparison with the previous period of 263 thousand. Recall that ADP report was published on Wednesday, and there we saw a significant decline. The current data may be even worse. As a result, the dollar may again be under pressure.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar begins, to put it bluntly, with a day off in Europe, Germany celebrates the national holiday "Spirit Day". In terms of statistical data, The week is rather modest. The most interesting events are shown below --->
Monday, June 10
United States 14:00 UTC+00 - Number of vacancies in the JOLTS labor market (Apr): Prev. 7.488M ---> Forecast 7.240M
Tuesday, June 11
United States 13:45 UTC+00 - Producer Price Index (PPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.2% ---> Forecast 2.0%
Wednesday, June 12
United States 12:15 UTC+00 - Basic Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.1%
Friday, June 14
United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Volume of retail sales (m / m) (May): Prev. 3.1%
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that at this time there is another rollback from the level of 1.1300 with a deceleration within the value of 1.1265, a point of the previously passed mid-term outset. It is likely to assume a temporary talk about the current coordinate, where the main movement will go at the time of publication of statistics from the United States.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions for the purchase is considered in the case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1300.
- Sell positions are considered in case of price fixing lower than 1.1250, with a primary perspective of 1.1210.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term have changed their interest from ascending to descending against the background of rollback. Intraday and mid-term perspectives maintain an upward interest against the background of recent jumps.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 7 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 22 points. Volatility can be accelerated by data from the United States.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100.
Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level