The past week turned out to be extremely funny and rich in various events, as well as the tenacity with which investors played against the dollar. The start of such a fascinating process was laid by China, or rather, a gradual awareness of the fact that the United States can no longer do whatever it pleases with impunity. It turns out that the Celestial is able to respond, and even so, that will not find it. Although all the fighters for freedom and democracy in the most remote corners of the universe do not cease to resent the inordinate arrogance of China. Investors do not care for such high philosophical matters. They care only about their own profits. And once the two largest economies in the world decided to start a quarrel, many decided to step aside. That's just the scale of the sparring partners. It is so impressive that they can even carry out a couple of dozen countries just by waving. So it is not clear where they could possibly hide money acquired by overwork. Old Europe is the only place in the world where so much money can be accommodated. For everyone else, even from the hint that they intend to park all this dug through money, will break like hamsters. As they say - you can not cram nevi.
Then the oracle and the prophets of all stripes entered the business, although they tried to do something completely different. Representatives of the club of experts diligently assured everyone that during a meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, they could decide to lower the refinancing rate. It won't happen now, but soon. Well, or at least the resumption of the program of quantitative easing will be announced soon. And once such Sodom and Gomorrah are scheduled, many market participants decided to speculate on this topic. Before the meeting itself, they actively got rid of dollars, so that immediately after the announcement of the verdict, they happily could buy the depreciated portraits of the dead American presidents. As Mario Draghi prepares for retirement, he behaved like a real scoundrel, saying that monetary policy parameters remain unchanged and the European Central Bank does not change its plans yet. The only thing that did not allow the single European currency to rush further up after such words was the statement that during the meeting, questions about the possibility of lowering the refinancing rate, as well as the resumption of the quantitative easing program, did arise. It is true that the final decision (to leave everything as it is) was made unanimously. But the European Central Bank does not exclude such a scenario, if the situation worsens. And as if hinting at the fact that so far there is no need to worry, the regulator raised its forecast for economic growth rates. Although the European single currency is still hampered by its own macroeconomic statistics, which showed a slowdown in retail sales growth from 2, 0% to 1.5%, as well as a decrease in inflation from 1.7% to 1.2%. It was as if hinting that the Old World is not the best place to lie down at the bottom during the squabbles between Uncle Sam and the Red Dragon. In this regard, the forecasts of the European Central Bank on the pace of economic growth look somehow overly optimistic.
Europe, already represented by Jean-Claude Juncker, made another attempt to weaken the dollar. The head of the European Commission, escorting Theresa May from the post of head of the Conservative Party, said that the European Union was ready to give the United Kingdom another respite from the three-time damned Brexit. They said that the new prime minister, whose name should be known before mid-July, will take some time to deal with the mess that Theresa May caused. However, this attempt was a failure, because the overlord who arrived with a revision from overseas immediately stated that Boris Johnson should become the new prime minister of the former metropolis. And in this situation, Europe can give as many delays as possible, for the eccentric former foreign minister calls for an immediate "divorce", without any "divorce" agreements and penalties imposed in this case. Although if Europe is ready to pay something to the UK, it is always welcome. But the proud United Kingdom owes nothing to anyone. The main thing is not to confuse this with interference in the internal affairs of independent states. For the orders of the suzerain are not interference in the affairs of vassals.
At the same time, the United States Department of Labor also presented an unpleasant surprise to the native dollar. And although the ADP report showed employment growth of only 27 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose by 18 thousand, only positive news was expected from the report of this ministry. But again, everything went wrong, as expected. The only thing that could somehow please, is that the unemployment rate has remained unchanged, although this is extremely strange, since only 75 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture. It is possible that this happened due to the immutability of the share of labor in the total population. But the worst thing is that the average workweek has remained unchanged, and the growth rate of the average hourly wage has slowed from 3.2% to 3.1%.
Donald Trump himself, complains about the most honest media in the world, who, they say, with their hysterics about Russia, prevent him from starting a constructive dialogue. Diligently and daily drawing the image of such universal evil in the person of Russia, the means of mass agitation and disinformation create such conditions that do not even allow us to think about some search for ways to resolve existing differences. And if not for them, he would have immediately met with Vladimir Putin and immediately agreed on everything. It became clear to everyone that in the United States they are trying to find options for the resolution of disputes and the peaceful settlement of existing differences.
Despite the fact that last week in the United States came out very important data, we will not give a break. After all, the final data on inflation is published, which should confirm the fact of its slowdown from 2.0% to 1.9%, which will convince even more all that the Federal Reserve System will seriously consider the question of reducing the refinancing rate. Although it will not be long to grieve, for the growth rate of retail sales should accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4%, which compensates for the decrease in inflation. Also, the growth rate of industrial production can accelerate from 0.9% to 2.5%, once again demonstrating that Donald Trump manages to make America great again.
In Europe, they will discover champagne, since industrial production, which is still falling by 0.6%, should slow down its decline to 0.2%. But the joy will be short-lived, because quite quickly the realization will come of how pathetic it looks against the background of American achievements. So the single European currency, if China and the United States again do not throw something out, could drop to 1.1200.
The British pound is already starting to be unfavorable, since industrial production, which only recently showed an increase of 1.3%, suddenly showed a decline of 1.0%. But it is still expected to increase unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9%. And the only thing that can somehow sweeten the bitter pill is the growth rate of the average wage, taking into account bonuses, that is, processing from 3.2% to 3.4%. In other words, instead of recruiting new workers, British entrepreneurs squeeze more and more juices from the existing ones. Still, the general background is somewhat depressing, and the American statistics are expected to be quite good. So the pound is to fall to 1.2625.