EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended with an increase of 15 b.p on Tuesday, June 11. At the moment, the wave marking still involves the construction of a correction set of waves down, since the trend section of May 23 took a pronounced 5-waveform. However, nothing prevents the bulls from continuing to purchase the euro, which will complicate this part of the trend, its internal wave structure. Thus, a successful attempt to break the maximum of the expected wave 5 will indicate the readiness of the markets for further increase. The news background for the euro/dollar pair remains twofold. On the one hand, the euro has recently received strong support from American news. On the other hand, economic reports from the Eurozone also do not give much cause for optimism. Thus, I believe that the US currency still has more prospects. Today, Mario Draghi's speech is of interest, which is already actively preparing the markets for a possible easing of monetary policy. His speech can cause the purchase of the dollar today, which coincides with the beginning of the construction of the proposed wave 2.
Purchasing goals:
1.1367 – 76.4% Fibonacci
1.1447 – 100.0% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1106 – 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro/dollar pair is expected to be at the stage of building the first wave of a new trend segment. However, the construction of a correction set of waves can begin today or tomorrow. Based on this, I recommend waiting for the beginning of the construction of wave 2, and upon its completion from the lows between 11 and 12 figures, buy a pair of euro/dollar with targets located above the 14th figure.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and gained about 50 base points from the lows of the day. Thus, there are doubts about the readiness of the markets to resume a downward trend. At the same time, the news background does not give hopes for a strong increase in the pound/dollar pair. Yesterday, the news from the UK was positive(higher wage growth than expected), but in general, the country's economy is experiencing serious problems associated with Brexit. Brexit remains the main topic for the British pound for the past three years. The Prime Minister in Britain is due to be elected by mid-July and 125,000 Conservative Party members will vote. Only after that, it will be possible to talk about new prospects for Brexit. For now – the standby mode. This is also understood by markets that do not want to force events. The bulls slightly took the pair away from the multi-month lows, but there is clearly not enough strength for more. Perhaps today the pound sterling will help the inflation report in America.
Sales targets:
1.2554 – 200.0% Fibonacci
1.2360 – 261.8% Fibonacci
Purchasing goals:
1.3175 – 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument does not change and assumes the resumption of the instrument's decline within the expected wave C or a new, fifth wave. Thus, now I recommend waiting for the breakthrough of the level of 200.0% and sell the pound with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% Fibonacci. Purchases, in my opinion, are still associated with increased risks.