4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.
CCI: -27.9633
On Thursday, June 13, the euro/dollar pair unexpectedly adjusted to the moving average line. From a technical point of view, the correction has been brewing for a long time, since over the past two weeks the pair have grown almost recoilless. However, from a fundamental point of view, it would have been more logical to see the continuation of the strengthening of the European currency yesterday, as macroeconomic statistics from overseas are disappointed again – the inflation report was weaker than traders' expectations. However, everything happened as it happened, now the pair and the traders face a clear choice. Overcoming the MA – the trend is likely to change to a downward, and the bears will again take the initiative in their hands. The rebound from the MA and the upward trend will continue. No important macroeconomic publications are planned for today in the US, and there will be an indicator of changes in the volume of industrial production for April in the eurozone. The forecasts are disappointing – it is expected to decrease by 0.5%. If the real value is even lower or about -0.5%, the chances of overcoming the moving on the euro/dollar pair will increase significantly. We still believe that the strengthening of the euro in recent weeks, though justified, but is unlikely to continue, as the economic situation in the eurozone remains much worse than in America.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1292
S2 – 1.1261
S3 – 1.1230
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1322
R2 – 1.1353
R3 – 1.1383
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair started to adjust. Now, there are actually buying of EUR/USD with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353, if traders rebound from the moving average line.
It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and consolidate below the MA, with the first targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.