4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – up.
The lower linear regression channel:: direction – up.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.
CCI: -24.4108
Gold rose in price throughout the month of June, which forced many experts and analysts to conclude that the demand for the most famous precious metal grew against the backdrop of a possible Fed rate cut or various geopolitical risks and trade wars. We believe that gold grew only for one reason – the US dollar became cheaper due to the failed macroeconomic statistics. And since the value of gold is measured in dollars, it turned out that the price grew. This conclusion applies only to the last 4 weeks, and not to the entire upward trend in gold. Now, when in the last two days, the US dollar has grown slightly (banal and expected correction), gold also began to move down, completely repeating the dynamics of some currency pairs. Thus, we believe that in the near future, the gold rate will continue to depend on the US dollar. To this trend, you can add an analysis of technical indicators that clearly show the direction of the trend. Now, this is an upward trend, respectively, long positions are relevant, and short positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than the consolidation below the moving average.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1406.25
S2 – 1390.63
S3 – 1375.00
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1421.88
R2 – 1437.50
R3 – 1453.13
Trading recommendations:
Gold began to adjust. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the turn of Heiken Ashi upward and trade for an increase with the targets at 1421.88 and 1437.50.
Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than overcoming the moving traders with the first targets at 1375.00 and 1359.38 and small lots since both channels of linear regression are directed upward.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.