4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.
The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -201.3766
On Monday, July 8, the EUR/USD pair is in the position in which Friday ended, that is, almost at the bottom of the fall after the publication of NonFarm Payroll. One way or another, but the US currency is strengthening again, without strong fundamental support, which makes traders think again about the resumption of the downward trend. For almost a month, traders discussed the completion of the long-term trend for the dollar, preparing to reduce the Fed's key rate and ignoring the fact that the ECB can also reduce the rate. Now, when there are 26 points before the update of the previous local minimum, and to the lows of the year – 120 points, there is every reason to assume that the bears are returning to the market, and the euro will again be under pressure. On the first trading day of the new week, there will be no important macroeconomic publications in the EU and the US. Thus, we can see some kind of correction after Friday's fall. However, in order to identify its beginning, we recommend waiting for the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. Tomorrow, Jerome Powell, head of the Fed, will make a semi-annual report to the congressmen. Naturally, his speech and communication with the deputies will relate to monetary policy, the economy and its prospects. Thus, any information on these topics received in the media will have an impact on the movement of all pairs with the US dollar.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1169
S2 – 1.1108
S3 – 1.1047
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1230
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1353
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward movement. Now, it is recommended to continue to trade on the decline to the level of Murray "3/8" - 1.1169, before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi up.
It is recommended to buy the euro currency after traders consolidate back above the moving average line, which will change the trend to an upward one, with the first target of 1.1353.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.